Tinjauan Analitis Pasangan Mata Uang Utama pada 2025.02.28

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.0482
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.0398
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.80 %

The euro slid below $1.04, the lowest level in two weeks, pressured by the dollar’s overall strength as traders assessed escalating trade tensions and their potential impact on the European economy. US President Trump confirmed that 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico will take effect next week and announced plans to impose an additional 10% tax on Chinese imports. He also announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on imports from the EU, including cars and other goods. In response, a European Commission spokesperson said, “The EU will respond firmly and immediately to unjustified barriers to free and fair trade, including when tariffs are used to challenge legitimate and non-discriminatory policies.”

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.0375, 1.0317
• Level resistance: 1.0442, 1.0490, 1.0529, 1.0539

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend has changed to a bearish one. The euro has consolidated below the priority change level and is now trading below the EMA lines. It is not recommended to sell now, as the price has deviated strongly from the moving averages. For short-term buying, we can consider the support level of 1.0375, subject to buyers’ reaction.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.0490 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.2672
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.2601
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.56 %

Trump is in no hurry to impose tariffs on the UK because if Britain retaliates, the US economy will also be hit hard. As for monetary policy, the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to cut rates once a quarter until the end of the year. The labor market is estimated to be under noticeable pressure and service sector inflation is likely to fall again in the spring, falling short of the Bank of England’s latest estimates. This should make the Bank more confident about cutting rates much closer to the 3% level than the markets are currently assuming.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.2581, 1.2553
• Level resistance: 1.2613, 1.2645, 1.2689

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair has changed to a downtrend. The British pound has consolidated below the level of priority change and is trading below the moving averages. Currently, the price has reached the support level of 1.2580, where some fixation of earlier open sales is observed. However, with a high probability, the price will continue to decline, as the 1.2580 level is not a key one. Selling can be considered from EMA lines with a target of 1.2553. There are no optimal entry points for buying now.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks through the resistance level at 1.2689 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 149.05
• Tutup sebelumnya: 149.80
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +0.50 %

The Japanese yen strengthened to 149.4 per dollar on Friday and gained almost 4% in February, supported by strong expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates this year. Despite mixed results from recent economic reports, Japan’s economy and inflation and wage trends continued to support the Central Bank’s efforts to normalize policy. Data released on Friday showed that Tokyo’s core inflation, a leading indicator of price developments in the country, slowed to 2.2% in February from 2.5% in January. However, it remained above the BOJ’s 2% target for the fourth consecutive month.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 149.09, 148.86, 148.28, 147.32
• Level resistance: 150.74, 151.50, 152.32

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish, but it is close to change. The price seeks to test the priority change level of 150.74. It is too late to buy as the price is showing a strong deviation with the EMA lines. Selling should be considered from 150.74, subject to sellers’ reaction.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks above the resistance at 150.74, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 2917
• Tutup sebelumnya: 2877
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -1.39 %

Gold traded near $2,860 per ounce on Friday, posting its first weekly loss in nine months. Gold was pressured by a strengthening US dollar amid President Donald Trump’s looming tariff program. On Thursday, Trump confirmed that 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods will take effect on March 4, while an additional 10% levy on Chinese imports could also be imposed by the same date. According to the World Gold Council, more than 600 tons (nearly 20 million ounces) of gold has been moved into New York vaults since December amid the looming tariffs. Meanwhile, investors are keeping a close eye on PCE price data, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, for further signals on monetary policy today.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 2854, 2828
• Level resistance: 2866, 2900, 2930, 2940, 2944

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD has changed to a downtrend. The price has consolidated below the priority change level and is trading below the EMA lines. Currently, the price is aiming to test the support level of 2854. This level can be considered for buying, but with short targets, as the bearish bias remains. For selling, we can consider 2866, but also with confirmation, as a breakout and consolidation above 2866 will open the way to 2900.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks and consolidates above the resistance at 2945, the uptrend will likely resume.