Tinjauan Analitis Pasangan Mata Uang Utama pada 2025.02.14

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.0381
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.0464
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +0.80 %

The euro climbed above $1.04, hitting a two-week high, after President Trump signed a memorandum to renegotiate reciprocal tariffs without immediately imposing new duties, easing fears of a quick US retaliation. This eased inflation fears and uncertainty about the Fed’s policy path. Optimism about a possible resolution to the conflict in Ukraine also increased as Trump promised to accelerate peace efforts after talks with Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky. However, divergence in monetary policy remains an obstacle for the euro.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.0390, 1.0317, 1.0272
• Level resistance: 1.0455, 1.0520

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The euro has reached the resistance level of 1.0455, but sellers are not reacting yet. A divergence is forming on the MACD indicator, which could potentially lead to a corrective movement. However, if the price consolidates confidently above 1.0455, it will open opportunities for further growth up to 1.0520. Selling should be considered from 1.0455 if sellers take the initiative.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.0317 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.2436
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.2565
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +1.04 %

The British pound rose to $1.25 after preliminary data showed that the UK economy grew by 0.1% in the final quarter of 2024, defeating expectations of a 0.1% contraction and beating the Bank of England’s prognoses. However, challenges remain: On March 26, the UK Office for Budget Responsibility will publish an updated economic and fiscal outlook amid reports that it has downgraded its growth estimates. Last week, the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25bps to 4.5%, the third rate cut since the easing cycle began in August 2024, and worsened its GDP growth expectations for 2025 to 0.7%.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.2555, 1.2480, 1.2396, 1.2335
• Level resistance: 1.2567, 1.2614

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish. The price has reached the resistance level of 1.2567. There is a large accumulation of liquidity above the level, and after its test, the price may be correct. However, without the sellers’ initiative and price consolidation below the intermediate level of 1.2555, it is premature to look for sell trades, as the price may accelerate to 1.2614 on the liquidity test.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.2335 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 154.37
• Tutup sebelumnya: 152.80
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -1.03 %

The Japanese yen traded around 153 per dollar on Friday after rising about 1% in the previous session, helped by a sharp decline in the dollar as US President Donald Trump refrained from immediately imposing retaliatory tariffs, easing fears of escalating global trade tensions. Meanwhile, Japan’s Economy Minister Akazawa said on Friday that Japan would respond appropriately to any retaliatory tariffs by the US.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 152.77, 151.62
• Level resistance: 153.59, 154.33, 155.04, 155.52

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. The resistance level at 154.33 proved to be an insurmountable barrier for buyers. Yesterday, the price declined sharply, broke through the nearest support levels, and consolidated below the moving average lines. Currently, the price is trading at the support level of 152.77, but the reaction of buyers is weak, which increases the probability of further decline to 151.62. Buying should be sought if the price holds above 152.77. But until that happens, we should focus on selling intraday.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks above the resistance at 155.52, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 2900
• Tutup sebelumnya: 2928
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +0.96 %

The precious metal remains resilient, supported by trade war uncertainty. Gold held at $2,930 per ounce on Friday, posting its seventh consecutive weekly gain, as US tariff policy continued to drive demand for the safe-haven currency. On Thursday, President Trump ordered federal agencies to explore the possibility of adjusting US tariffs to match those of other countries without immediately imposing them.

 

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 2923, 2871, 2834, 2807
• Level resistance: 2950, 3000

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold has returned to rally. The EMA lines are again well supporting the move, acting as dynamic support levels. The intermediate level of 2923 can also be considered for buying with a target to 2950. There are no optimal entry points for selling now.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks below the support level of 2834, the downtrend will likely resume.