Tinjauan Analitis Pasangan Mata Uang Utama pada 2025.02.06

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.0377
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.0402
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +0.24 %

In the Eurozone, business activity returned to growth after two months of contraction. The European Central Bank (ECB) recently cut interest rates and suggested that further cuts are possible in March. There are concerns that US tariffs could cause deflation, which could prompt the ECB to ease monetary policy further. As a result, investors lowered expectations for the ECB deposit rate, predicting its decline to 1.87% by December.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.0373, 1.0332, 1.0272, 1.0239, 1.0178
• Level resistance: 1.0381, 1.0433

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish, but close to change. The euro reached the level of priority change yesterday, but the sellers regained their positions a bit. True market conditions are shaping up for a trend change. For buying, it is better to consider the support level of 1.0373 or 1.0332, but with confirmation. For selling, there are no optimal entry points right now.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0433 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.2475
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.2505
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +0.24 %

Today the Bank of England will hold a monetary policy meeting. Economists expect the BoE to cut the benchmark rate to 4.5% from 4.75% and hint at further cuts amid a stagnant UK economy. Since the Bank of England published its latest projections in November, the economy has stagnated and inflation data fell last month. BoA analysts believe the faster-than-expected decline in service inflation, weak growth and a weakening labor market support the case for a rate cut. However, a rate cut would leave the British pound without Central Bank support, especially in the face of fiscal consolidation in March. This is a bearish combination for sterling. In the medium term, the pound will be under pressure in the coming weeks and months. We may see mini rallies in the short term, but they are not backed by anything fundamental.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.2468, 1.2383, 1.2344, 1.2270
• Level resistance: 1.2505

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair has changed to an upward trend. The price consolidated above the priority change level yesterday, but reached the next resistance zone. Currently, the price is correcting on the background of MACD divergence. For buy deals, it is best to consider the support level of 1.2468, but with confirmation. In case of a sharp sell-off of the pound on the outcome of the meeting, the level of 1.2383 can also be considered for buying. There are no optimal entry points for selling right now.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.2472 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 154.32
• Tutup sebelumnya: 152.60
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -1.12 %

The Japanese yen strengthened above 152 per dollar on Thursday, hitting the highest level in eight weeks, as Bank of Japan board spokesman Tamura said the Central Bank should raise the discount rate to at least 1% in the second part of fiscal 2025. Finance Minister Kato also warned that inflation could continue to rise. In addition, data released earlier this week showed strong wage growth, fueling expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise the interest rate this year.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 151.91, 150.74
• Level resistance: 152.78, 154.39, 155.04, 155.52

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. The price declined to the support level of 151.91. There is also a strong demand zone here, but the reaction of sellers is weak. Moreover, the resistance level of 152.78 prevents the price from going into correction. Therefore, the price is expected to react at 152.78 and start accumulating liquidity in the form of flat accumulation for further decline to 151.91.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks above the resistance at 155.52, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 2844
• Tutup sebelumnya: 2862
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +0.63 %

Gold rose further to surpass $2860 per ounce in February, a new record, amid rising expectations of interest rate cuts and lingering concerns about geopolitical risks and barriers to global trade. Activity in the US services sector, tracked by the ISM, rose less than expected in January and prices faced by companies slowed. As a consequence, traders have increased positions that reflect two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, which is in line with the latest FOMC estimates. 

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 2861, 2807
• Level resistance: 2900

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold continues to update the historical highs. Looking for sell trades here is not recommended, as sellers are not responding and there are no resistance levels. It is not clear where the ceiling is. It is recommended to use the moving averages or the 2861 level for buying, provided the price reacts. If the price consolidates below 2861, it could trigger the start of a correction as indicators are pointing to a strong divergence.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks below the support level of 2772, the downtrend will likely resume.