Tinjauan Analitis Pasangan Mata Uang Utama pada 2025.01.23

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.0428
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.0408
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.19 %

The euro strengthened yesterday to a five-week-high, reflecting relief that President Donald Trump refrained from imposing tougher trade sanctions early in his term. Markets had feared protectionist policies could undermine global growth and push up US inflation, but Trump’s initial focus on pro-business policies supported investor sentiment. In Davos, ECB President Christine Lagarde advocated economic reforms, supported the ECB’s cautious approach to interest rate cuts and cited energy prices as the main inflationary problem.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.0392, 1.0343, 1.0299, 1.0265, 1.0238, 1.0223
• Level resistance: 1.0434, 1.0458

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bullish. The euro managed to reach the level of 1.0458 yesterday and gathered liquidity above 1.0434. The implication is that the captured liquidity will now be distributed lower. Buyers are trying to keep the price down by building an intermediate level of 1.0392. With these market conditions, there are no optimal entry points for buying now. For selling, it is recommended to consider 1.0434 or moving averages in order to test liquidity below 1.0343.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.0265 and consolidates below, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.2344
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.2315
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.23 %

According to experts, rising bond yields will force the UK government to make spending cuts when the government announces its spending review on March 26. The spending cuts in March could coincide with a downward revision in UK service price inflation and finally allow the Bank of England to cut rates more aggressively. The market is pricing in the likelihood of a 50bp cut in Bank of England rates this year, although some economists see the need for a 100bp cut.

 

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.2270,1.2229, 1.2158
• Level resistance: 1.2344, 1.2376, 1.2507

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish, but close to change. The price tested the liquidity above 1.2344 and reached the priority change level of 1.2376. However, sellers were able to defend positions. Moreover, the captured liquidity should now be distributed lower. The MACD indicator indicates a divergence, which increases the probability of a reversal. Under these market conditions, price is expected to decline to 1.2270 or 1.2229.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks through the resistance level at 1.2376 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 155.47
• Tutup sebelumnya: 156.52
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +0.67 %

The Japanese yen held its recent decline to 156.5 per dollar on Thursday as the Bank of Japan began its two-day policy meeting. The Central Bank is expected to raise the discount rate to 0.5% on Friday, the highest short-term borrowing cost in 16 years. BOJ Governor Ueda recently signaled that the central bank would consider a rate hike if the economy remains strong, while Deputy Governor Himino said it would be unusual for real interest rates to remain negative as Japan overcomes deflationary pressures.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 156.28, 155.26, 154.93, 154.34
• Level resistance: 156.74, 157.18, 158.19

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. The price corrected to the resistance level at 156.74. The test of liquidity above is accompanied by a bearish reaction. This increases the probability of further downward movement. Intraday, we can look for selling with a target to 156.28 or even lower. Buying should be considered only if the price consolidates above 156.74.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks above the resistance at 158.19, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 2742
• Tutup sebelumnya: 2756
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +0.51 %

On Wednesday, gold rose to $2,760 per ounce, up more than 1% from the previous session and reaching its highest level since early November last year. The metal was supported by a relatively softer US dollar and rising demand for safe-haven assets as fears of trade wars persist after President Trump’s announcement of potential tariff policies. Trump pledged to impose tariffs against the European Union and confirmed that he is considering imposing 10% tariffs against China, after previously announcing the prospect of large duties against Canada and Mexico.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 2734, 2717, 2703, 2690, 2666, 2655, 2636, 2622, 2603, 2570
• Level resistance: 2762, 2790

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold continues to rise in price. Yesterday, the price reached the resistance level of 2762, where counter sales took place. Currently, the price is starting to form a narrow accumulation near the level, which increases the probability of a breakout and further growth. Moving averages can be used for buying, but with confirmation in the form of price reaction. Also, the support level of 2734 will be suitable for buying if sellers are able to break the dynamic EMA lines. There are no optimal entry points for selling right now.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks below the support level of 2656, the downtrend will likely resume.