Tinjauan Analitis Pasangan Mata Uang Utama pada 2025-01-22

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.0415
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.0430
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +0.14 %

ECB policymakers favor caution on further rate cuts. Eurozone inflation rose for the third consecutive month to 2.4% in December, although this rise was largely expected due to favorable base effects from the previous year. The ECB, which has already cut rates four times since June, is likely to maintain its easing trajectory over the next six months. Markets are currently expecting a 25bp cut in the key deposit rate at the upcoming ECB meeting next week.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.0354, 1.0299, 1.0265, 1.0238, 1.0223
• Level resistance: 1.0434, 1.0458

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bullish. After the liquidity test below 1.0354, buyers brought the price back to 1.0434. Above this level there is a huge accumulation of liquidity, which can lead to both acceleration of the movement and a sharp reversal. There are no optimal entry points for buying now. For selling it is recommended to consider 1.0434 or 1.0458, provided the sellers take the initiative.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.0265 and consolidates below, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.2320
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.2353
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +0.27 %

In the UK, wage growth accelerated to a six-month high in the three months prior to November, in line with expectations. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, accompanied by the sharpest drop in jobs since November 2020, indicating a potential softening in the labor market. In addition, last week’s data showed an unexpected slowdown in inflation and weaker-than-expected economic growth. Against this backdrop, the Bank of England is widely expected to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% next month. Markets are also betting on another cut or two after February.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.2322, 1.2255, 1.2158
• Level resistance: 1.2344, 1.2376, 1.2507

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish, but close to change. The price tested liquidity above 1.2344, but the sellers’ reaction is weak. Buyers have built a support level at 1.2322 to keep the price down. A breakdown of 1.2322 may trigger a wave of sell-offs. The MACD indicates a divergence, which increases the probability of a reversal. However, it’s most likely that the price will try to test the level of priority change at 1.2376.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks through the resistance level at 1.2376 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 155.59
• Tutup sebelumnya: 155.51
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.05 %

On Wednesday, the Japanese yen stopped at 155.6 per dollar, halting its recent rally, which was fueled by expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates this week after hawkish remarks from Central Bank officials. A rate hike would push Japan’s short-term borrowing costs to 0.5%, the highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda recently said the Central Bank would consider raising rates if the economy continues to perform well.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 155.26, 154.93, 154.34
• Level resistance: 156.24, 156.74, 157.18, 158.19

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. Currently, the price is correcting, forming a broadly volatile flat. Most likely, the price will try to capture liquidity higher before continuing the downward movement. Therefore, a rise in price to 156.24 or 156.74 is not ruled out. These levels can be considered for selling, but with confirmation in the form of sellers’ reaction. Buying is undesirable now.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks above the resistance at 158.19, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 2711
• Tutup sebelumnya: 2743
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +1.18 %

Gold climbed above the $2,740 per ounce mark on Tuesday, extending gains from the previous session as investors remain focused on the potential impact of US President Donald Trump’s policies during his second term. Trump has said he may impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada from early next month, but he did not give a timeline for imposing tariffs on China. These tariffs, if enacted, could trigger a trade war, which would increase demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. At the same time, investors are assessing inflation risks as Trump’s program to cut taxes and increase government spending could increase price pressures, potentially limiting the Federal Reserve’s ability to ease monetary policy and reducing gold’s appeal.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 2717, 2703, 2690, 2666, 2655, 2636, 2622, 2603, 2570
• Level resistance: 2762, 2790

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold continues to rise in price. Currently, the price is trying to test the resistance level of 2762, where there may be counter-selling. And MACD divergence on several time frames hints at it. Moving averages can be used for buying, but with confirmation in the form of price reaction. There are no optimal entry points for selling right now. 

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks below the support level of 2656, the downtrend will likely resume.