Tinjauan Analitis Pasangan Mata Uang Utama pada 2025.01.13

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.0299
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.0244
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.53 %

The Dollar Index gained 0.44% on Friday and reached a 2-year high. Friday’s stronger-than-expected US December Payrolls report pushed bond yields higher and strengthened the dollar as unexpected signs of strength in the labor market reduced the chances of a Fed rate cut. The December jobs report showed a robust labor market, with 256,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate falling to 4.1%, beating estimates. This raised fears that the Fed may keep rates at an elevated level until June 2025. This scenario hurt the European currency, as the ECB is 95% likely to continue cutting rates on January 30.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.0223
• Level resistance: 1.0326, 1.0357, 1.0382, 1.0403, 1.0425, 1.0447, 1.0493

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The euro has reached long-term targets and tested liquidity below 1.0223. Below this level, is the daily demand zone, so retesting the low is not excluded. However, it is not recommended to sell here. Firstly, with the initiative of buyers and consolidation of the price above 1.0223 will give a signal for long deals. Secondly, the MACD indicates divergence, increasing the probability of correction or even reversal.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0425 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.2307
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.2209
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.80 %

Friday’s stronger-than-expected US December Payrolls report caused a sharp rise in the US dollar and depressed the British currency. A big data package on the UK economy is expected this week, with the inflation report and GDP and industrial production data being the main reports. Economists expect a slight decline in core inflation and GDP growth, which may provide temporary support to the weakened pound.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.2187
• Level resistance: 1.2371, 1.2455, 1.2507, 1.2540, 1.2568, 1.2614, 1.2667

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. Sellers have reached a large pool of liquidity below 1.2187, but there is still no reaction from buyers. On the other hand, the MACD indicator is already hinting at a correction. A price consolidation above 1.2187 will give a buy signal, as the captured liquidity should be distributed above resistance levels. There are no optimal entry points for selling at the moment, as the price has deviated strongly from the moving averages, but the price may flatten instead.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks through the resistance level at 1.2540 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 158.08
• Tutup sebelumnya: 157.72
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.23 %

The Japanese yen strengthened to 157.5 per dollar on Monday, marking the third consecutive session of gains amid weak holiday trading. The local currency found support amid speculation that Bank of Japan policymakers may raise their inflation projections at their upcoming meeting this month, which could signal further interest rate hikes. Last week, Japan’s Economy Minister Akazawa said the economy was at a “critical stage” in overcoming the public’s deflationary mindset, but gave no clear timeline for when the BoJ might act.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 157.18, 156.24, 155.94, 154.34
• Level resistance: 157.98, 158.40, 159.47

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The Japanese yen, after a liquidity test above 158.54, sharply consolidated below the level. The intraday bias has changed to a downward trend. Currently, the demand zone below 157.18 is the key frontier. If the price tests this zone and consolidates above, the uptrend may continue. However, if sellers are able to sell this support level, in this case, a sharp sell-off to 156.24 may occur.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks and consolidates below the 156.24 support, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 2670
• Tutup sebelumnya: 2691
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +0.78 %

Gold prices climbed above the $2,690 per ounce mark on Friday, reaching the highest level since mid-December, and extended gains for the fourth consecutive session. This was despite a stronger-than-expected jobs report that underscored the resilience of the US labor market and supported the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on rate cuts. Traders now expect the Fed to hold rates steady through the second half of the year. Most likely, uncertainty around President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff policy, which is seen as inflationary, is currently fueling demand for the metal.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 2679, 2663, 2645, 2636, 2622, 2603, 2570
• Level resistance: 2672, 2692

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bearish, but it is close to change. The price reached the level of priority shift on Friday, but sellers were able to defend their positions. Moreover, the price made a liquidity grab above, which increases the probability of a decline to 2679. The moving average lines are still a dynamic support level and support the upside. A level of 2679 can be considered for buying, provided buyers react. A breakdown and consolidation below 2679 could trigger a sell-off to 2663. Divergence on the MACD indicator increases the probability of a move to 2663.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks above the 2692 resistance level, the uptrend will likely resume.