Tinjauan Analitis Pasangan Mata Uang Utama pada 2025.01.02

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.0402
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.0353
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.47 %

According to European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, reaching the 2% inflation target is approaching. Consumer price growth in the Eurozone has slowed over the past year and fell below the ECB’s target level in September, although it has started to pick up again in recent months, and Lagarde warned that it will hover around the current level in the near term. Still, this slowdown has allowed policymakers to cut interest rates by four quarter-points, and economists forecast four more cuts through June.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.0334
• Level resistance: 1.0372, 1.0424, 1.0447, 1.0493, 1.0513

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The euro has consolidated below the 1.0372 level, which opens the way for the price to 1.0323. The level of 1.0372 can be used for selling, which became resistant after the breakdown. The moving average lines can also be considered for sell deals. If the price impulsively returns above 1.0372, it will be considered a false breakdown with liquidity grabbing. In such a scenario, the price could rise sharply to 1.0424.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0513 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will be resumed with a high probability.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.2548
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.2515
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.26 %

The dovish tone of the Bank of England (BoE) at the December meeting on the 2024 rate had a negative impact on sterling towards the end of the year. Meanwhile, the UK economy shows signs of weakness, with third-quarter GDP falling to zero and second-quarter growth revising down to 0.4% from 0.5%. According to economists, the economic problems will lead to weak GDP figures in the first quarter of 2025. In the medium term, all this will put downward pressure on the British currency.

 

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.2487, 1.2475, 1.2446
• Level resistance: 1.2568, 1.2614, 1.2667

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. The price seeks to test the liquidity below 1.2500, so intraday is worth focusing on selling. Sell trades can be considered from the moving average lines or the 1.2568 resistance level. The profit target is the support level at 1.2487.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks through the resistance level at 1.2667 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 156.84
• Tutup sebelumnya: 157.20
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +0.23 %

The Japanese yen changed slightly to around 157 per dollar on Thursday amid low trading volumes as Japan marks the vacation season. Investors continued to digest the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) interest rate outlook after core and core inflation rose in November. Minutes from the Bank of Japan’s December meeting showed that policymakers discussed the possibility of a rate hike shortly, with some committee officials suggesting that conditions are beginning to level out for such a move.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 156.54, 155.94, 154.34
• Level resistance: 157.23, 157.89, 159.47

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish, but the yen is moving towards a change of priority. Currently, the price has reached the intermediate support level at 156.54, where buyers can partially push the price back. However, the overall goal for sellers remains the same — to test liquidity below 155.94, so any bounce in price intraday should be considered an opportunity to open sell trades.

Skenario alternatif:

If the price breaks and consolidates below the 155.94 support, the downtrend is likely to resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 2608
• Tutup sebelumnya: 2623
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +0.57 %

Gold rose above $2,630 per ounce on Thursday, extending gains after a 27% surge last year, its best performance since 2010. The rise was driven by monetary easing, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and record central bank buying. Investors are now looking for new catalysts to influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy this year after Chairman Jerome Powell recently cautioned about further rate cuts due to renewed concerns about inflation. This hawkish signal reduces the attractiveness of gold, which is not yielding income.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 2622, 2603, 2570
• Level resistance: 2640, 2672, 2700

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bearish. Currently, the price is aiming to test liquidity above 2638. If sellers here react with a sharp initiative, it is worth considering selling to 2603 or lower. But if the level of 2638 does not resist and the price impulsively breaks it, it will open space for gold to rise to 2672.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks above the 2664 resistance level, the uptrend is likely to resume.