Tinjauan Analitis Pasangan Mata Uang Utama pada 2024.12.31

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.0428
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.0507
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.20 %

The Dollar Index rose to 108.2 on Monday as the US economic backdrop favors a less accommodative policy stance than other major central banks. Evidence of volatile inflation amid signs of labor market resilience has led the FOMC to forecast fewer interest rate cuts next year. The rise of the dollar puts pressure on the euro as the ECB cuts rates more aggressively, with the bloc’s economic health not in the best conditions.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.0372, 1.0334
• Level resistance: 1.0447, 1.0493, 1.0513

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. Yesterday, the euro tested liquidity above 1.0447, after which the price declined sharply and reached the support level 1.0372. Further, the price returned above 1.0384, thus forming a false breakdown and grabbing new liquidity, which should now be distributed higher. Today, we should expect a slow rise to 1.0446, but on the back of New Year’s Eve, the price may flounder for the rest of the week.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0513 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will be resumed with a high probability.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.2572
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.2550
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.17 %

Data from the Center for Retail Research shows that nearly 170,000 retail workers will lose their jobs in 2024, an increase of 49,990, or 41.9%, from 2023. Challenges related to changing shopping habits, inflation, rising energy costs, rents, and business rates continue forcing retailers to cut costs even more severely in 2024. Independent retailers, which are typically small businesses with one to five stores, cut a total of 58,616 jobs during the year. Experts say 2025 will be another challenging year. Thus, if the labor market continues to cool, the Bank of England will be forced to cut rates more actively, which is a negative factor for the British currency.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.2487, 1.2475, 1.2446
• Level resistance: 1.2588, 1.2614, 1.2667

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. Yesterday, the price grabbed liquidity above 1.2588 and distributed to Friday’s low. A so-called SMT divergence (when one currency updates an extremum while the other does not) has formed between the euro and the British pound, which increases the probability of a reversal. Thus, during the day, we should expect the price to rise, but since the European markets are closed today and tomorrow is a bank holiday until Thursday, the pound is likely to flatten at the level of the moving averages.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks through the resistance level at 1.2667 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 157.63
• Tutup sebelumnya: 156.85
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.50 %

The Japanese yen strengthened to 156.4 per dollar on Tuesday, extending recent gains ahead of the New Year holiday. Investors continue to assess the Bank of Japan’s interest rate outlook, weighing last week’s acceleration in core and core inflation against a summary of the BoJ’s December meeting that showed policymakers discussed the possibility of a rate hike in the near term, with some suggesting conditions are leveling off for such a move.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 155.94, 154.34
• Level resistance: 157.35, 157.89, 159.47

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish, but the yen is moving towards a change of priority. Yesterday, the price strengthened to 156.88, but after grabbing liquidity below the level, the upward movement did not develop. The price was consolidated below the level of impulse candles and rushed lower. The volume surge at the support level indicates the activity of sellers. And all this is happening against the background of the US dollar growth. Thus, we should expect a further price decline to 155.94 intraday.

Skenario alternatif:

If the price breaks and consolidates below the 155.94 support, the downtrend is likely to resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 2615
• Tutup sebelumnya: 2608
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.26 %

Steady labor market data on payrolls and evidence of unsustainable inflation led FOMC officials to forecast fewer Fed rate cuts in 2025, which caused gold prices to lose a bit in Q4. But the medium-term picture for gold remains bullish. Gold continues to be supported by increased demand for safe-haven assets due to escalating geopolitical conflicts and interest rate cuts by other leading central banks.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 2608, 2570
• Level resistance: 2614, 2640, 2664, 2672, 2700

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bearish. The price is forming a flat accumulation in the range of 2608-2640 and is now aiming to break the lower boundary. After a liquidity test below 2608, the price forms a narrow accumulation. Next, the price reaction should be evaluated. A breakout above 2614 will reopen the way to 2640. If sellers react to 2614 and bring the price back below 2608, we should expect a further price decline to 2580. However, considering the fact that there will be no news triggers until the end of the week, gold might just flatten between 2608 and 2614.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks above the 2664 resistance level, the uptrend is likely to resume.