The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2025.02.11

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0297
• Prev. Close: 1.0309
• % chg. over the last day: +0.08 %

The euro showed minor losses after President Trump announced to impose 25% tariffs on all US steel and aluminum imports, which could disrupt global trade and put pressure on the Eurozone economy. The euro’s losses were capped after the February Sentix Index of Eurozone Investor Confidence rose more than expected to a 7-month high. ECB Vice President Guindos warned that the imposition of tariffs by the US would cause a “supply shock” that would “fundamentally” affect the expansion of the global economy. Swaps discount the odds of a 25bp ECB rate cut at the March 6 meeting at 100%.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0272, 1.0239, 1.0178
• Resistance levels: 1.0336, 1.0373, 1.0433

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The euro has consolidated below the support level of 1.0336, which opens the way to 1.0272. Inside the day, you can look for sell trades from the moving average lines or from the level of 1.0336. Buying can be considered if the price reacts at 1.0272 or if the price regains its holding above 1.0336.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0433 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2370
• Prev. Close: 1.2367
• % chg. over the last day: -0.03 %

UK Retail Sales in January 2025 grew by 2.5% year-on-year, which is lower than December’s 3.1% growth, but still well above market expectations of 0.2%. However, according to experts, such figures are unlikely to be sustained in the future as inflationary pressures intensify. In addition, retailers are incurring new costs in the amount of 7 billion pounds.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2335, 1.2270
• Resistance levels: 1.2422, 1.2468, 1.2505

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish. Compared to yesterday, the situation has not changed much. The so-called SMT-divergence was formed between the pound and the euro. This is when one instrument updates the price minimum or maximum, and the second instrument does not. In most cases, this leads to a reversal of the price movement. For buying, the support level of 1.2335 can be used. There are no optimal entry points for selling.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.2335 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 151.29
• Prev. Close: 151.99
• % chg. over the last day: +0.46 %

The Japanese yen is holding near 152 per dollar on Tuesday after falling in the previous session, weakened by dollar strength following the imposition of the latest US tariffs. The US President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports “without exceptions or exemptions,” raising fears of triggering an inflationary global trade war. The move could also limit the scope for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, the yen gained more than 2% last week amid growing expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise rates this year.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 151.12, 148.42
• Resistance levels: 152.77, 154.39, 155.04, 155.52

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. The price starts to form flat accumulation in the range of 151.12-152.77. On intraday timeframes, currently, the price is trying to test the upper boundary of the range. Further, it is necessary to evaluate the price reaction. A breakout of 152.77 will open the way to 154.39.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks above the resistance at 155.52, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2860
• Prev. Close: 2907
• % chg. over the last day: +1.64 %

Gold traded above $2,910 per ounce on Tuesday, remaining at record levels, helped by strong demand for safe-haven gold amid rising trade tensions and economic uncertainty. President Donald Trump recently imposed sweeping tariffs on all US steel and aluminum imports and signaled new retaliatory tariffs this week. Geopolitical risks have also increased as Hamas has suspended the release of Israeli hostages, citing alleged Israeli violations of the Gaza ceasefire, raising the risk of renewed conflict. Meanwhile, expectations of monetary policy easing are supporting gold, which is not yielding. 

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2834, 2807
• Resistance levels: 2900

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold continues to update the highs. The 2900 psychological level was not seen by the price. The next option level is 2950. Analysts believe that gold will reach 3000 before the end of the first quarter. Buying should be sought intraday, as the price makes very small pullbacks on a strong move. There are no optimal entry points for selling right now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks below the support level of 2834, the downtrend will likely resume.