The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2025.02.05

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0342
• Prev. Close: 1.0378
• % chg. over the last day: +0.34 %

On Tuesday, the euro recovered from early losses and moved up after the dollar fell amid weaker-than-expected economic news from the US. The JOLTS report showed that there were fewer job openings than expected in the US in December, and manufacturing orders fell sharply. The euro was also supported on Tuesday by a rise in European government bond yields, which bolstered the euro’s interest rate differential. However, trade concerns are limiting the euro’s gains after President Trump threatened to impose tariffs against the Eurozone, which would undermine economic growth and possibly push the Eurozone economy into recession. Swaps discount the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at the March 6 meeting to 100%.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0332, 1.0272, 1.0239, 1.0178
• Resistance levels: 1.0381, 1.0433

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish, but close to change. The euro recovered quickly after Monday’s gap up. Currently, the price is testing the sell zone above 1.0381, but the reaction of sellers is weak, which increases the probability of further growth. Buying can be sought from 1.0381 or from moving averages. The profit target is the level of priority change at 1.0433. There are no optimal entry points for selling now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0433 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2449
• Prev. Close: 1.2479
• % chg. over the last day: +0.24 %

Amid escalating trade tensions, investors increased their bets on a Bank of England rate cut to support the economy. Markets now estimate at least three quarter-point rate cuts this year with the growing likelihood of a fourth. A rate cut at Thursday’s Bank of England meeting — from 4.75% to 4.5% — is considered a near certainty, with odds as high as 98%.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2383, 1.2344, 1.2270
• Resistance levels: 1.2472, 1.2505

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish, but close to change. The price has reached the level of priority change and the reaction of sellers here is weak, which increases the probability of further growth. However, a little higher, there is another resistance area, which can become a stumbling block for buyers. Therefore, the potential for a long deal now is small. It is recommended to refrain from buying for now and wait for the price reaction at 1.2505.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.2472 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 154.71
• Prev. Close: 154.34
• % chg. over the last day: -0.24 %

The Japanese yen strengthened to 154 per dollar on Wednesday, hitting a seven-week-high, as strong wage and services data reinforced expectations of a more hawkish stance from the Bank of Japan. The data showed that real wages in Japan rose in December for the second consecutive month and nominal wage growth hit a near three-decade high, boosted by a sharp increase in winter bonuses. In addition, Japan’s services PMI for January was revised upward to 53, up from the forward reading of 52.7.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 153.14, 151.91
• Resistance levels: 156.02, 156.74, 157.18, 158.19

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. Sellers were able to intercept the initiative, which led to the price decline to the support level of 153.14. There is a strong demand zone here and if buyers do not react, the yen may strengthen to 151.91. Therefore, a breakdown of this level will open up selling opportunities. If the buyers are able to take the initiative, we can consider buy trades up to the moving average lines.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks above the resistance at 155.52, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2816
• Prev. Close: 2844
• % chg. over the last day: +0.99 %

Gold hit a record high of $2,840 an ounce on Tuesday amid fresh concerns that tariffs by economic superpowers will hamper global growth, boosting demand for safe haven assets. The US President Trump delayed imposing tariffs against Mexico and the US, but this week imposed 10 percent duties on all imports from China. In response, Beijing announced tariffs on US energy products that will begin next week.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2807
• Resistance levels: 2900

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold continues to update the historical highs. It is not recommended to look for sell trades here, as sellers are not responding and there are no resistance levels. It is recommended to use moving averages for buying, provided the price reacts.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks below the support level of 2772, the downtrend will likely resume.